“An admonition like “The more complex you make the model, the worse the forecast gets.” is equivalent to saying “Never add too much salt to the recipe.” How much complexity-how much salt-did you begin with? If you want to get good at forecasting, you’ll need to immerse yourself in the craft and trust your own taste buds.”

“An admonition like “The more complex you make the model, the worse the forecast gets.” is equivalent to saying “Never add too much salt to the recipe.” How much complexity-how much salt-did you begin with? If you want to get good at forecasting, you’ll need to immerse yourself in the craft and trust your own taste buds.”

— Nate Silver