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Top 180 Nate Silver Quotes (2024 Update)
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Nate Silver Quote: “People don’t have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Poker is so volatile that it’s possible for a theoretically winning player to have a losing streak that persists for months, or even for a full year. The flip side of this is that it’s possible for a losing player to go on a long winning streak before he realizes that he isn’t much good.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.”
Nate Silver Quote: “People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.”
Nate Silver Quote: “If you aren’t taking a representative sample, you won’t get a representative snapshot.”
Nate Silver Quote: “In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.”
Nate Silver Quote: “We look at all the polls, not just the Gallup Poll. So, it’s kind of like if you have, you know, four out of five doctors agree that reducing cholesterol reduces your risk of a heart attack, Gallup is like the fifth doctor.”
Nate Silver Quote: “On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.”
Nate Silver Quote: “I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them ‘oh, here’s what you should believe’ and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.”
Nate Silver Quote: “The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.”
Nate Silver Quote: “One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Not only does political coverage often lose the signal – it frequently accentuates the noise.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Wherever there is human judgment there is the potential for bias. The way to become more objective is to recognize the influence that our assumptions play in our forecasts and to question ourselves about them.”
Nate Silver Quote: “The most basic tenet of chaos theory is that a small change in initial conditions – a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil – can produce a large and unexpected divergence in outcomes – a tornado in Texas. This does not mean that the behavior of the system is random, as the term “chaos” might seem to imply. Nor.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Essentially, the frequentist approach toward statistics seeks to wash its hands of the reason that predictions most often go wrong: human error.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.”
Nate Silver Quote: “I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it’s a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.”
Nate Silver Quote: “The most basic tenet of chaos theory is that a small change in initial conditions – a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil – can produce a large and unexpected divergence in outcomes – a tornado in Texas.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Shakespeare’s plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.”
Nate Silver Quote: “When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.”
Nate Silver Quote: “The leap is into the Bayesian way of thinking about prediction and probability.”
Nate Silver Quote: “A lot of the time nothing happens in a day.”
Nate Silver Quote: “I’ve become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I’m actually doing and what I actually deserve.”
Nate Silver Quote: “To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, ‘Hey, celebrities are just like us.’”
Nate Silver Quote: “This is an example of an out-of-sample problem. As easy as it might seem to avoid this sort of problem, the ratings agencies made just this mistake. Moody’s estimated the extent to which mortgage defaults were correlated with one another by building a model from past data – specifically, they looked at American housing data going back to about the 1980s.”
Nate Silver Quote: “All models are wrong, but some models are useful.”90 What he meant by that is that all models are simplifications of the universe, as they must necessarily be.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Meanwhile, if the quantity of information is increasing by 2.5 quintillion bytes per day, the amount of useful information almost certainly isn’t. Most of it is just noise, and the noise is increasing faster than the signal. There are so many hypotheses to test, so many data sets to mine – but a relatively constant amount of objective truth.”
Nate Silver Quote: “First of all, I think it’s odd that people who cover politics wouldn’t have any political views.”
Nate Silver Quote: “I don’t think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the ‘experiment.’”
Nate Silver Quote: “Voters memories will fade some.”
Nate Silver Quote: “If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.”
Nate Silver Quote: “To the extent that you can find ways where you’re making predictions, there’s no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don’t know the answer to in advance.”
Nate Silver Quote: “I’ve just always been a bit of a dork.”
Nate Silver Quote: “In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Like a baseball umpire, an intelligence analyst risks being blamed when something goes wrong but receives little notice when she does her job well.”
Nate Silver Quote: “People still don’t appreciate how ephemeral success is.”
Nate Silver Quote: “When you get into statistical analysis, you don’t really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by ‘The Onion’ – or be the subject of a cartoon in ‘The New Yorker.’ I guess I’m kind of an outlier there.”
Nate Silver Quote: “We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that.”
Nate Silver Quote: “We’re living in a world where Google beats Gallup.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Nobody saw it coming. When you can’t state your innocence, proclaim your ignorance: this is often the first line of defense when there is a failed forecast.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Most of our strengths and weaknesses as a nation – our ingenuity and our industriousness, our arrogance and our impatience – stem from our unshakable belief in the idea that we choose our own course.”
Nate Silver Quote: “The fox knows many little things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.”
Nate Silver Quote: “You will need to learn how to express-and quantify-the uncertainty in your predictions. You will need to update your forecast as facts and circumstances change. You will need to recognize the wisdom in seeing the world from a different viewpoint. The more you are willing to do these things, the more capable you will be of evaluating a wide variety of information without abusing it.”
Nate Silver Quote: “I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.”
Nate Silver Quote: “The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Successful gamblers, instead, think of the future as speckles of probability, flickering upward and downward like a stock market ticker to every new jolt of information.”
Nate Silver Quote: “Laplace’s Demon:.”
Nate Silver Quote: “When you draw up a player, scouts have a feel for what they want to see,” Sanders told me. “Prototypical standards. Dustin went against the grain in some of those areas, starting with his size.” When we can’t fit a square peg into a round hole, we’ll usually blame the peg – when.”
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