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Top 10 Philip E. Tetlock Quotes (2025 Update)

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “The ultimate goal of science is uncertainty’s total eradication.”

1. “The ultimate goal of science is uncertainty’s total eradication.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “But when big events happen – markets crash, wars loom, leaders tremble – we turn to the experts, those in the know. We look to people like Tom Friedman.”

2. “But when big events happen – markets crash, wars loom, leaders tremble – we turn to the experts, those in the know. We look to people like Tom Friedman.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “We are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product, or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold.”

3. “We are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product, or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “Ignoring the vices of our friends and the virtues of our enemies sets us up for nasty surprises.”

4. “Ignoring the vices of our friends and the virtues of our enemies sets us up for nasty surprises.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously,” Daniel Kahneman noted, “but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.”

5. “It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously,” Daniel Kahneman noted, “but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “Take the price of oil, long a graveyard topic for forecasting reputations.”

6. “Take the price of oil, long a graveyard topic for forecasting reputations.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “There are no certainties in life – not even death and taxes if we assign a nonzero probability to the invention of technologies that let us upload the contents of our brains into a cloud-computing network and the emergence of a future society so public-spirited and prosperous that the state can be funded with charitable donations.”

7. “There are no certainties in life – not even death and taxes if we assign a nonzero probability to the invention of technologies that let us upload the contents of our brains into a cloud-computing network and the emergence of a future society so public-spirited and prosperous that the state can be funded with charitable donations.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “Consumers of forecasting will stop being gulled by pundits with good stories and start asking pundits how their past predictions fared – and reject answers that consist of nothing but anecdotes and credentials.”

8. “Consumers of forecasting will stop being gulled by pundits with good stories and start asking pundits how their past predictions fared – and reject answers that consist of nothing but anecdotes and credentials.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “Once we know the outcome of something, that knowledge skews our perception of what we thought before we knew the outcome: that’s hindsight bias. Baruch Fischhoff was the first to document the phenomenon in a set of elegant experiments.”

9. “Once we know the outcome of something, that knowledge skews our perception of what we thought before we knew the outcome: that’s hindsight bias. Baruch Fischhoff was the first to document the phenomenon in a set of elegant experiments.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “Not knowing is exciting. It’s an opportunity to discover.”

10. “Not knowing is exciting. It’s an opportunity to discover.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “Scientists must be able to answer the question “What would convince me I am wrong?” If they can’t, it’s a sign they have grown too attached to their beliefs.”

11. “Scientists must be able to answer the question “What would convince me I am wrong?” If they can’t, it’s a sign they have grown too attached to their beliefs.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “When you combine the judgments of a large group of people to calculate the “wisdom of the crowd” you collect all the relevant information that is dispersed among all those people. But none of those people has access to all that information. One person knows only some of it, another knows some more, and so on.”

12. “When you combine the judgments of a large group of people to calculate the “wisdom of the crowd” you collect all the relevant information that is dispersed among all those people. But none of those people has access to all that information. One person knows only some of it, another knows some more, and so on.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “This approach, built on the “wisdom of the crowd” concept, has been called “the crowd within.” The billionaire financier George Soros exemplifies it. A key part of his success, he has often said, is his mental habit of stepping back from himself so he can judge his own thinking and offer a different perspective – to himself.”

13. “This approach, built on the “wisdom of the crowd” concept, has been called “the crowd within.” The billionaire financier George Soros exemplifies it. A key part of his success, he has often said, is his mental habit of stepping back from himself so he can judge his own thinking and offer a different perspective – to himself.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock Quote: “Like everyone else, scientists have intuitions. Indeed, hunches and flashes of insight – the sense that something is true even if you can’t prove it – have been behind countless breakthroughs. The interplay between System 1 and System 2 can be subtle and creative.”

14. “Like everyone else, scientists have intuitions. Indeed, hunches and flashes of insight – the sense that something is true even if you can’t prove it – have been behind countless breakthroughs. The interplay between System 1 and System 2 can be subtle and creative.”

— Philip E. Tetlock

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